Whatever happened to The White Lotus effect? When Mike White’s prestige series announced it would be heading to Thailand for its third season, everyone assumed it would be followed by a tourism boom, as wide-eyed Western travellers rushed to get their fill of the destination they’d seen on screen.
In fact, it looks like the opposite might have happened, at least going by headline numbers. According to official figures from the Thai government, international tourism actually fell eight per cent last year. Overall, the Land of Smiles chalked up 32.97 million international visitors – significantly fewer than its government’s target of 39 million and down on 2024’s 35.54 million.
What went wrong? It wasn’t that The White Lotus didn’t do a great job of showcasing Thailand’s assets. Not only did Koh Samui and Phuket look suitably heavenly (leaving aside what the guests were up to), but the scenes in Bangkok had a haunting beauty too: remember the shots of the row boat on the Chao Phraya River?
The darker side of Thailand
Of course, it wasn’t the only time Thailand ended up on our screens last year. While it might not have had the reach of the Golden Globe-winning The White Lotus, there was an acclaimed BBC series looking into the sleazier side of Thailand, including the dangers of the famous Full Moon parties. Maybe that has had an effect?
Koh Samui looked suitably heavenly in HBO’s award-winning series The White Lotus last year – HBO
The verdict from Thailand tour planners confirms that something could well be afoot. “We have noticed a significant reduction in booking requests for Thailand,” says Kerstin Di Carlo from tour operator Hayes & Jarvis. And though there is no obvious single cause for the decline, there are a few candidates that stand out.
Top of the list has been the border skirmishes with Cambodia that have led to numerous missile exchanges in 2025 and fears of a hot war. While the long-running territorial dispute is far from being a full-scale conflict, and the clashes have happened a very long way from either Bangkok or Thailand’s southern beach resorts, it’s still not exactly the sort of thing that plays well with tourists, not least given the risk of flight cancellations.
On top of the mini-war, Thailand was also affected by the large earthquake that hit neighbouring Myanmar last spring. The fatalities may have only been a fraction of those seen in Myanmar (where more than 5,000 people lost their lives), but it still made headlines back in the West. This is not ideal for a country that still lives under the long shadow of the horrendous tsunami in 2004.
Devastation in Bangkok following the large earthquake that hit neighbouring Myanmar in March last year – Wason Wanichakorn
The stuff of spy fiction
Before we diagnose a full-blown tourism recession, though, it’s worth parsing those official numbers. Indeed, if you dig deeper into the data, you can see that the headline dip in visitors (the eight per cent drop) is predominantly driven by much larger falls in visitors from some of the Asian countries that make up Thailand’s main markets – including China.
How important is China to Thailand’s tourism? For much of the past decade, the East Asian giant has been one of the largest – if not the single biggest – drivers of Thai tourism, making up around one in seven visitors. That all changed last year, when a bombshell news story led to a rapid shift in Chinese attitudes towards Thailand.
It all began when a small-time Chinese actor called Wang Xing travelled to Bangkok for what he thought was a casting call. Instead, he was kidnapped by a criminal outfit and smuggled to Myanmar, where the gang wanted to put him to work in one of their scam call centres.
Chinese actor Wang Xing was kidnapped by a criminal outfit in Bangkok in January 2025 – Andreas Rentz/Getty Images for BMW
To Western ears, it might sound like the stuff of spy fiction. Not so in China, where the case became an instant cause célèbre, prompting accusations that Thai authorities were turning a blind eye to the activities of the Myanmar mafia and allowing it to exploit Chinese citizens. As anger gathered pace on social media, it looked like a full-scale tourism boycott might be on the cards.
Thai authorities eventually pressured the criminals to hand over a newly shaven-headed Wang Xing. But did the nationalistic spat do lasting damage to the Thai tourism sector? It would appear so, given that Chinese visitors fell by almost one-third in 2025. And that’s in a year in which Thai authorities had originally expected to see a jump in numbers.
A bid to attract ‘higher-class’ tourists
Leaving aside Chinese tourism, there’s another potential story at play here that relates more directly to Westerners. In recent years, Thailand has been remarkably open about its ambition to attract a higher-class tourist. Indeed, the tourism bureau confirmed to me that the current strategy is to focus on “quality” visitors: in other words, to swap backpackers and beach-bums for big spenders.
Is it working so far? “We certainly see more travellers interested in ‘off-the-beaten-path’ travel in Thailand,” says Kerstin Di Carlo from Hayes & Jarvis (though we can probably assume that backpackers weren’t booking through a tour operator in the first place).
A growing luxury market would also explain the number of five-star hotels that have been opening across Thailand. A new Anantara is set to open any minute now in Bangkok, as well as a Langham property. Meanwhile, Hilton is unveiling a new five-star “nature-immersive” resort under its LXR brand on Phuket.
The airlines certainly aren’t preparing for a downturn. British Airways is actually increasing flights this week, with six planes taking off each week (from Gatwick) in peak season. The country also remains a major market for the Middle Eastern carriers, which run connecting services from London.
Perhaps there won’t be a full-scale plummet just yet. But last year did at least provide a reminder that Thailand’s tourism sector isn’t as immune to a downturn as we might have assumed – particularly when there is a risk of armed conflict.
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