If the Tourism Authority of Thailand remains optimistic by predicting 36 to 37 million travelers, other institutions are more cautious for 2026. A lot will depend of economic and political conditions inside the Kingdom.
Thailand’s tourism industry is heading into 2026 in a far more complex environment than simple arrival forecasts suggest, as economic pressures, reputational challenges and infrastructure concerns increasingly shape travel demand. While visitor numbers are expected to remain broadly stable, the sector faces a tougher task in translating volume into value.
Varying forecasts for 2026
While the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) estimates that foreign arrivals could grow by 7% to 10% in 2026—equivalent to 36 to 37 million visitors—other institutions are far less optimistic, forecasting only modest growth or even stagnation.
Kasikorn Bank’s research unit however forecasts about 34.1 million foreign arrivals in 2026, a modest year-on-year increase of roughly 4 percent. The Thai Hotels Association is slightly more cautious, expecting arrivals to hover around 33 million, broadly unchanged from 2025. Both projections underline a reality now widely accepted across the industry: Thailand’s tourism recovery has entered a phase of plateau rather than acceleration, still below pre-pandemic highs.
Recent hotel performance highlights this mixed picture. Hotel revenues improved in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the previous quarter, driven by long-haul travelers from Europe and the United States and by government domestic tourism stimulus programs, including subsidized travel schemes and tax refunds. Average nationwide occupancy rose to 76 percent in November, with December forecast at 77 percent, confirming a solid high season. Four-star hotels and above were the main beneficiaries.
However, momentum weakened in the second half of 2025 compared with a year earlier. Flooding in southern Thailand during peak season disrupted coastal destinations, while border tensions and global economic uncertainty weighed on confidence.
At the same time, a stronger Thai baht has eroded Thailand’s price competitiveness, raising costs for visitors and encouraging more cautious spending. Industry leaders warn that exchange-rate pressure is making Thailand less attractive compared with regional rivals such as Vietnam and Indonesia.
Kasikorn Research identifies lower spending per tourist as a central structural weakness heading into 2026. Visitor numbers alone are no longer enough to drive revenue growth, reinforcing the need for a shift toward higher-value segments, including MICE, medical tourism and wellness travel.
Thailand’s need to polish its image
Beyond economics, Thailand is also grappling with image and safety concerns that risk undermining demand in key markets. Industry operators point also to a tarnished international perception.
This negative image has been particularly eroded by the Thai Army’s operations during the conflict with Cambodia. The destruction of infrastructure, the damage of temples and religious objects as well as the bombing of areas deep inside Cambodia -where civilians are living and far away from border areas- are likely to create discomfort for some travelers which looked at Thailand as a neutral, welcoming and empathic country. A ceasefire, signed on December 27, 2025, is a first step into a normalization with Cambodia but damages are lasting memories.
Safety concerns—particularly related to transport infrastructure, airport congestion and aging facilities—are also weighing on traveler confidence, especially among repeat and long-haul visitors.
Meanwhile, in 2025, cyber-crime targeting travelers became a defining issue. The government has since acknowledged the scale of the problem, launching initiatives such as the Anti-Online Scam Operation Center (AOC) and introducing new laws covering reporting, fund recovery and enforcement, alongside arrests of gangs and individuals involved.
With labor shortages continuing, hotel operators are calling for stronger government support, including energy cost relief, tax reductions, low-interest renovation loans and faster expansion of airport and rail capacity.
Some relief could come from China, with TAT now expecting around 6 million Chinese visitors in 2026. An unexpected boost may also come from shifting regional dynamics: as tensions between Japan and China prompt some Chinese travelers to boycott Japan, Thailand is once again emerging as an alternative destination.